My Prediction of the Order of Eliminations of the American Idol Top 6

Before I make my prediction of the order that the Top 6 will finish in this season of American Idol, I want to comment on something that was mentioned on Marc Berman's Programming Insider Podcast this morning.

Congratulations to Will Levith and his fiance Laura on their engagement! It is rare these days for me to hear people who have great news to share. Most of the news in my life for many months now has been depressing so it is nice to hear some good news for a change.

Now on to my predictions of how the Top 6 contestants will do on Idol.

In case you missed Wednesday's Idol Gives Back Week Results Show because it ran over by a whopping 20+ minutes, Tim Urban, AKA Teflon Tim, wound up in the bottom 3 and was eliminated. Therefore my Top 6 Prediction I made back in Mid-March did not come true, though Aaron Kelly did land in the bottom 3 too. So I was close.

Let me talk a little bit about the contestants first:

Aaron Kelly: He is way out of his league right now. I can't see any possible way he could win Idol unless he gives one of the best performances in the history of the show which I don't see happening. His chances of making the top 2 and winning are about 0%.

Crystal Bowersox: She is obviously considered the front runner by most. But I don't think she will quite win this year. Here is why: She was sick one week which fouled up the entire order that week. So that raises suspicion that she is getting preferential treatment from the show's producers. Then we had this report that she was going to quit the show, but Seacrest talked her out of leaving. From what I can recall, most people who question whether they want to leave a reality show and where the judging is based on viewers' votes usually don't win in the end. George Boswell from Big Brother 1 comes to mind. Lou Diamond Phillips who was on "I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here!" which aired last Summer on NBC was one of the few contestants who didn't break down and talk about quitting the show and he was the eventual winner. I'll give Crystal about a 45% chance of winning if she makes the final 2.

Casey James: He is kind of in the middle for me. He is not the weakest of the Top 6, but he is not the strongest either. The main problem with Casey is his performances often seem too safe or predictable which does not allow for "a memorable performance." I'd give him like a 33% chance of winning if he makes the final 2.

Siobhan Magnus: She is kind of out there with many of her performances. I feel sometimes like she is a one trick pony because of the loud yelling at the end of several performances. This is the person Crystal needs to be in the Top 2 with to have the best chance of winning, because Siobhan is likely to lose a lot of votes because she is the least popular for many people because of her "way out there" fashion choices and song arrangements. In order for Siobhan to win this season, she would probably have to face Aaron in the Top 2 which again is not going to happen. So I think Siobhan's chances of winning are only about 10% if she makes the final 2.

Michael Lynche: He is a wild card. He could be really great when it matters the most at the end. If he faces Aaron or Siobhan in the final 2, he will win easily. If he faces Casey or Lee DeWyze in the final 2, it could be a toss-up. If he faces Crystal, I think Crystal will probably beat him by a slim margin. So I think his chances of being the winner if in the Top 2 are about 50%.

Lee DeWyze: To be fair, I want to point out that he has been my favorite of the Idol contestants for several weeks now so I might be a little more biased about him. He could potentially beat any of the other 5 contestants in the finale, but so could Michael or Crystal or even Casey. But Lee has been the best creative wise in my opinion and has been making the most of his Idol run of the remaining 6 contestants. The main problem with Lee is that he appears to try too hard to make one of his song choices work and that he doesn't feel relaxed enough on stage. But he has that underdog quality about him. So for those reasons, if Lee makes the Top 2, I think his chances of winning are about 63%. I think his biggest competition would be Crystal and possibly Michael if he had really good performances during the finale.

So here is my prediction as to how they will finish:

6th Place - Aaron Kelly
5th Place - Casey James
4th Place - Siobhan Magnus
3rd Place - Michael Lynche
2nd Place - Crystal Bowersox
1st Place - Lee DeWyze

Remember Idol has not yet filmed the remaining episodes. These are just my predictions that I am making for the fun of it. So I could be way way off. So stayed tuned!!